15–20 defections/week × 8 summer weeks = 120–160 loyalty realignments
Each one: 74% next purchase probability → 44%
At $2,500 front-end gross: $750 in lost expected next purchase value per customer
At $47,700 lifetime value: $7.6M in lifetime value erosion over one summer
None of it shows up on the fixed ops report — it shows up in Q4 sales